In our series of articles on betting, today we have a look at the five cornerstones of successful betting. These should always be taken into account before placing your bet.
Statistics compiled over many years from top European leagues show that approximately 50% of matches finish with a home victory, 25% of matches a drawn and 25% end with the away team victorious. Therefore it’s fair to speak of home advantage being a factor in any given match.
Common reasons for the home team’s successes can be explained by travelling fatigue, the extra motivational factor of the home crowd or simply the home side being able to operate in a familiar environment.
The existence of home advantage is indisputable, so it must be taken into account. However, it’s always worth to take a look at each side’s home- and away form to see how much effect it will have in any given match. Some teams upset the odds and perform better away than at home and vice versa.
Sometimes it’s more logical to take a look at form tables than league tables, especially if the season has gone on for a while. The form table is the best way to look at a team’s current state in terms of confidence, injuries and general performance levels and offers a better way to predict the outcome of the next match than the league table would.
This applies especially to the sides at the top and bottom of the league, but predicting the mid-table using the form guide is slightly more difficult, as their results vary more.
Injuries and suspensions
This should be obvious, but teams with key players missing will often experience a tough period while their star man is out injured. Some players just make a side “tick”, and without them a team can look significantly worse and without purpose.
In nearly all sports the absence of the first-choice goalkeeper or defender might be crucial. The captain’s or top scorer’s influence is also a massive factor to be taken into account.
Derbies are usually very emotional affairs, as both sets of supporters always expect a huge performance. In these clashes, league position or form aren’t so important as the motivation and intensity is significantly higher.
The significance of home advantage is also smaller in derby matches, as the away team hasn’t had to travel a long way to the match. This however doesn’t apply to matches like Real Madrid – Barcelona or Liverpool – Manchester United, where the importance of the match comes from reasons other than geography.
The world of sport can be a bit of a soap-opera at times, on and off the pitch. Players and managers come and go, a fact not to be underestimated. When speaking of sports clubs you can’t avoid financial troubles, salaries not being paid on time or even dramas inside the squad.
Usually these factors have a big effect on a team’s morale, which is in turn reflected on the pitch. However sometimes it’s hard to guess will it have a positive or negative impact on the team’s performance.
For example a managerial change can work both ways: for example, if a popular coach leaves the club, it might make the players extra-motivated to win the game for him, or in some cases it might lead to a depressed and unmotivated side.
When a new manager/coach arrives at a club, it usually means an energy spike for the whole squad. Players have to prove their worth to the new manager to keep their place in the team, so motivation rarely is an issue.
The essential to successful betting is to always play on the best odds on offer. It’s worth having a look at TurtleBet’s list of betting sites and find out which one has the best odds on offer for any given game while of course not forgetting to take advantage of the great betting bonuses on offer!