Rule #1 – Bankroll management
This rule applies to all sports betting, but it’s simply too important not to mention. Bankroll is the alfa and omega of betting. Your bankroll should always be separated from your other funds. You can make yourself a budget for a week, month or year (we recommend a year) for your bets.
Let’s say that you have a bankroll of 3000£ exclusively for NFL betting. An average rule is to spend approximately 2-5% of your bankroll per bet. If you’ve found a tasty value bet or a bet you deem certain to win, you bet 5% of your bankroll (150£). If it’s a “normal” bet, you wager 2% (60£).
The most important thing is to not raise your stakes, no matter how good a winning streak you start off with. Also, when losing, don’t raise your stakes to win your money back! Always keep your bet sizing at 2-5% compared to your bankroll.
Rule #2: Choosing your bet
Many a time has money been lost on a round of NFL fixtures due to betting on all the games in a round of fixtures. Don’t fool around with many different games searching for mindboggling odds. Instead, bet only on matches that are lucrative in terms of betting. Find a couple of good-looking matches each round and play them as singles (yes, singles!), or as doubles at most.
Sometimes NFL-weeks have a lot to offer a bettor, with as much as 6-8 good games to bet on. Other times there might be only one or two games on offer where a significant advantage on the bookies can be found. You must fight the urge to place bets in the more quiet weeks, instead saving your money for a better day.
If you want to have fun with a casual bet, for example due to a tv-match or just for fun, use a bonus or pay your bet from someplace other than your bankroll. By creating a new account on a site for a tv-match which you’re betting on for fun you can collect a bonus and your bet will be risk-free, thus not damaging your bankroll while also satisfying your urge to gamble. If you really want to use your bankroll, remember to make small bets, only using 0,5 to 1% of your bankroll.
Rule #3: Finding the best odds
Naturally the most important thing in any form of betting, but especially essential in NFL-betting. When betting on the winner of a match the odds are rather similar, but when you move to handicaps things start to get interesting! In betting on handicaps the bookies can often have very different outlooks on a match. For example you may want to bet on the Patriots with a spread. You’re offered the same odds (10/11) for the Patriots with -5.5, -6, -6.5 and -7 from different bookies. Logically -5.5 is by far the best option, so you should pick it.
We at TurtleBet try constantly to help you find the best odds on offer for NFL-betting, so keep an eye out for our features and articles!
We recommend using 3-4 different betting sites at the same time while betting on the NFL. With our years of experience on the topic, we can recommend that you make an account on the following sites so you can start your NFL-betting.
Rule #4: Don’t BUI
This may sound childish, but don’t bet while under the influence! It’s no coincidence that gamblers get free drinks in Vegas. Alcohol has a significant effect on betting choices and unfortunately nearly 100% of the time it’s a negative effect. First place your bets, then lift your feet up and enjoy NFL Sunday with a few cold ones and chicken wings.
Rule #5: Don’t tilt
Everybody loses every now and again. Even the best bettors in the world have huge losses and long winless streaks regularly and irregularly. Don’t let emotions get the better of you! Control your nerves and don’t change your betting plans – even when going through a tough period. And whatever you do, DO NOT raise the stakes on your bets. Look at your betting results in the long run, don’t tilt on the basis of one or two bad weekends. Always remember the Rule #1: Bankroll Management!
Rule #6: The impact of the Bye-week
Every team in the NFL gets one week of rest called “bye-week” during the 17 week season. This has a big impact when choosing which match to place your bets on. If a team is returning from their bye-week, they’ll have fresh legs and a week’s training preparing for the next match. This advantage cannot be overstated, and stronger teams are especially adept of taking advantage of a week’s extra rest. The better the quality of a team’s organisation and coaching, the better prepared they will be when returning from bye-week.
Rule #7: Thursday Night Football
There are a couple of games played on Thursday’s in the NFL, even more if it’s thanksgiving. There’s nothing special about these matches, except that both teams come into the match without much rest, as they only played last Sunday. However in next week’s matches, the teams that played on Thursday have had four extra days of rest compared to the teams that played on Thursday, handing them a significant advantage in these matches. So don’t forget the impact of Thursday Night Football when placing your bets!
Rule #8: Injuries
Injuries are extremely common in the NFL. Pay special attention to the injuries of key players. If a quarter-back, his most important wide receiver or a starting center is missing, there’s no way a team will be the same without them. Injuries to key players mean you can find advantages on over, under or handicapped bets.
Rule #9: The importance of home advantage
There has been a huge amount of research that has gone into identifying the importance of home advantage in American sports. In the NFL, home advantage seems to have an especially large impact compared for example to the NHL or MLB. Whereas in the NHL or MLB home advantage equates to about 3-5%, in the NFL this figure is closer to 7%. In America, time difference means it’s always more difficult to travel from east to west than from west to east. Travelling fatigue added to the pressure placed on officials by a roaring home crowd mean that for example Seattle has become a formidable opponent at home.
Rule #10: Points scored
For those not comfortable with betting on the winner of a match, betting on points scored is a great format. When betting on points scored, you must take a look the teams playing. For example teams playing a throwing game often tend to rack up more points as they move up the pitch faster not wasting time on the clock.
It’s also important to look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses. When two teams with good offense but bad defence come head-to-head, expect fireworks and vice versa. Simple, isn’t it?
Rule #11: Weather
If you’re betting on points scored, weather can be a crucial aspect not to be overlooked. Some NFL-teams play their games at indoor arenas immune to the impact of weather, while teams that play outdoors may struggle due to the wind, which affects both kicking and throwing.
This fact is confirmed by the stats. During 2003-2010 indoor matches had a points scored average of 46,2, whereas games played outdoors only had an average of 42,4 points per game. A difference of 3,8 points should not be overlooked.
When winds reach 20mph, the likelihood of scoring points dips significantly. In these circumstances there are on average 8 points less scored per game. If winds rise up to 25mph, the likelihood of and under-result climbs by 60%, and even an 15mph wind has an 5 point impact on average.
You can check out the weather of a match at www.nflweather.com before placing your bet!